This article will explore the mathematics of a Ponzi Scheme which has been transparent about its intentions. Suppose someone were to set up a fund that aims to pay investors a return of
I.e. for each unit of currency invested, it will aim to return
The fund pays out on a first in, first out basis. Early investor money is returned when (or if) later money arrives.
Suppose, at a point in time, the cumulative money invested is N.
The money that's been paid out is P and the fund has remaining money R.
We known that
(Investment in) = (Payouts made) + (Remaining money)
And there is the balance outstanding B, that remains unsettled as yet.
So we can write:
(Investment in) = (Settled amount) + (Balance outstanding)
The early investors who have received their settlement all got a return of
So we know that the payout:
So for each unit of currency invested, the worst case scenario for the investor is that
Hence we require the remaining funds (R) to be able to cover a payment of the balance (B) with an imposed loss.
If we do the algebra, we can find our unknows:
Settled amount: | |
Balance outstanding: | |
Payouts made: | |
Remaining money: | |
We can try that out with some numbers:
Inputs | ||
Total invested funds (N) | units of currency | |
Investment return ( |
% | |
Acceptable loss ( |
% | |
Outputs | ||
Settled amount (S) | 66.67 | |
Balance outstanding (B) | 33.33 | |
Payouts made (P) | 73.33 | |
Remaining money (R) | 26.67 |
With such a scheme, any investor would be allowed to demand an immediate repayment of funds at any time, though in that case a loss of
One problem for early investors is that they don't know how long they will have to wait until they'll be repaid their investment with the positive return (
It is also worth noting that this model above ignores any administrative fees that may be imposed on funds on the way in and or the way out.
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